Recognizing Simpson's paradox: Difference between revisions

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Even given that one understands Simpson's paradox, it would be nice to have some way to recognize that a new situation involves the paradox. In other words, given our hammer (i.e. understanding of Simpson's paradox) how can we go "hunting" for nails?

A preliminary list of steps:

  1. Encounter some new situation.
  2. Create a causal graph for the situation.
  3. Build tables for the success rate of the intervention, both unadjusted and adjusted for confounders.
  4. (You might observe Simpson's paradox now, looking at the tables.)
  5. Use the causal graph to determine which of the tables you should use.

Michael Nielsen talks about the moment when one's intuitive reasoning goes astray.[1] (Search for all occurrences of "moment" on that page.)

References

  1. Michael Nielsen. "Reinventing explanation". January 2014.