Recognizing Simpson's paradox: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 20:05, 2 June 2018
Even given that one understands Simpson's paradox, it would be nice to have some way to recognize that a new situation involves the paradox. In other words, given our hammer (i.e. understanding of Simpson's paradox) how can we go "hunting" for nails?
A preliminary list of steps:
- Encounter some new situation.
- Create a causal graph for the situation.
- Build tables for the success rate of the intervention, both unadjusted and adjusted for confounders.
- (You might observe Simpson's paradox now, looking at the tables.)
- Use the causal graph to determine which of the tables you should use.
Michael Nielsen talks about the moment when one's intuitive reasoning goes astray.[1] (Search for all occurrences of "moment" on that page.)
References
- ↑ Michael Nielsen. "Reinventing explanation". January 2014.