User:IssaRice/Belief propagation and cognitive biases

• "Several cognitive biases can be seen as confusion between probabilities and likelihoods, most centrally base-rate neglect." [1]
• I think a polytree graph like $X\rightarrow Z\leftarrow Y$ can illuminate the halo effect/horn effect
• Maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkson%27s_paradox The page even says "The effect is related to the explaining away phenomenon in Bayesian networks."

possibly related

• https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/KbCHcb8yyjAMFAAPJ/when-wishful-thinking-works
• https://www.gwern.net/Sunk-cost