User:IssaRice/Belief propagation and cognitive biases

• "Several cognitive biases can be seen as confusion between probabilities and likelihoods, most centrally base-rate neglect." [1]
• I think a polytree graph like $X\rightarrow Z\leftarrow Y$ can illuminate the halo effect/horn effect
• Maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkson%27s_paradox The page even says "The effect is related to the explaining away phenomenon in Bayesian networks."
• Fundamental attribution error? The simplified DAG would look like: situational influence → observed action ← personality. And the evidence feeds into the "observed action" node, which propagates upwards to the "situational influence" and "personality" nodes. I think the bias is that the "personality" node gets updated too much. Can belief propagation give insight into this?

possibly related

• https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/KbCHcb8yyjAMFAAPJ/when-wishful-thinking-works
• https://www.gwern.net/Sunk-cost
• http://agentyduck.blogspot.com/2014/02/lobs-theorem-cured-my-social-anxiety.html (lol)